Global semiconductor industry to be reshaped in 2029 as China and Taiwan dominate
IDC has released new forecasts showing that by 2029, the global semiconductor landscape will undergo a major shift. Mainland China and Taiwan together are expected to control 72% of worldwide production capacity, leaving the United States with only 8%.
In chip design, mainland Chinese companies have already surpassed those in Taiwan this year. By 2026, their share in the Asia‑Pacific region is projected to rise to 45%, compared to 40% for Taiwan. This momentum will continue, with mainland firms overtaking Taiwan in foundry production by 2028.
By 2029, mainland companies are expected to account for 37% of global capacity, Taiwan for 35%, the United States for 8%, and Japan and Europe for 3% each. This means China and Taiwan combined will become the world's absolute production hub, far ahead of other regions.
However, when it comes to advanced manufacturing processes, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is expected to remain unmatched. In the third quarter of 2025, TSMC reported revenue of 33 billion USD (about 240 billion RMB), holding a 71% market share. Samsung ranked second with 6.8%, while China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) placed third with 2.382 billion USD (about 17.3 billion RMB) in revenue, representing 5.1% of the market.
SMIC is currently building projects worth 80 billion USD (about 580 billion RMB), which could allow it to surpass Samsung in the coming years and become the world's second‑largest foundry. Still, experts note that in terms of cutting‑edge technology, companies in mainland China-including SMIC, Hua Hong, and Jinghe Integration-will continue to lag behind TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and GlobalFoundries.
TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, is the world's largest contract chipmaker, founded in 1987 and headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan. It pioneered the pure‑play foundry model, producing chips for companies such as Apple, AMD, and NVIDIA. With unmatched expertise in advanced nodes like 3nm and 5nm, TSMC has become the backbone of the global semiconductor supply chain. SMIC, founded in 2000 and based in Shanghai, is China's largest semiconductor foundry, focusing on mature processes while investing heavily in advanced technology. Together, these companies represent the core of Asia's semiconductor dominance.
